[Abstract] In view of that the average electricity consumption per capita is still rather low in China, this paper puts forward ten focal problems in the 10^th Five-Year Power Plan, including optimized allocation of power sources and power networks, environmental protection in coal-fired power plants, as well as localization of power equipment, etc.

It is universally acknowledged that great progress was made in China electric power industry during the 9^th Five-year Plan period. The continuous shortage of electricity in the last 20 years has been turned round. In 2000, the nationwide installed capacity reached 319 GW with an annual average increase of 8%. The electricity generation reached 1368.5 TWh, increased by 8% annually. The annual average increase of GDP was 8.3%. The power elasticity was 0.76, close to the average value of 0.8 from 1981 to 2000. 

Even so, the average electricity consumption per capita in China is still rather low, far lower than that in the developed countries, and even a wider gap exists as compared with the world average level. The planned annual increase of GDP is about 7% in the 10^th Five-year Plan period. As the estimated power elasticity is 0.8, power demand and installed capacity in 2005 will reach about 1800 TWh and 400 GW respectively, and 2350 TWh and 520 GW respectively in 2010. In order to realize these targets, the power industry needs to be developed fast, and great attention should be paid to ten focal problems. 

Focus One:

With less power source construction projects carried over, the areas short of power supply will be increased in the early 10^th Five-year Plan period.  

The new generating capacity to be installed in the 10^th Five-year Plan period will be 80 GW. Together with the retrofit capacity (totaling 15,000~20,000 MW) with substitutions of large size units for small ones and coal units for oil ones, the total capacity to be newly commissioned will reach about 100 GW, about 20,000 MW annually. Due to the construction period of large generating project is relatively long, it is necessary to keep a certain construction scale to meet the increasing demand of electricity consumption. At the end of 2000, the total capacity of the power networks in China was 319.32 GW, among which hydropower was 79.88 GW, thermal power 237.54 GW and nuclear power 2.1 GW. The total capacity under construction was 60.02 GW, among which hydropower was 26.05 GW, thermal power 27.37 GW and nuclear power 6.6 GW. 

There exist two main problems. (1) The construction scale of power networks is far insufficient in South China, East China and North China where power supply could originally meet the demand basically but now appears insufficient. The capacity to be commissioned in the early 10^th Five-year Plan period will not be enough to meet the increasing demand of power consumption. Power shortage areas will be increased. Guangdong, Zhejiang and South Hebei power grids, which are now experiencing a power shortage, will get into an even more serious situation. Power shortage will emerge in Jing-Jin-Tang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangxi and Ningxia power grids in 2002 or 2003. Therefore, a batch of thermal power projects needs to be started to construct urgently.  

(2) The construction scale of hydropower is seriously insufficient. Deducting 18,200 MW of the Three Gorges from the total number, the total capacity of other hydropower stations under construction only amounts to 7850 MW. About 15,000 MW can be put into operation in the 10^th Five-year Plan period, obviously too little to meet the requirements of Western Region Development and sustainable development. A batch of large and medium scale backbone projects needs to begin to construct immediately in the 10^th Five-year Plan period, such as Longtan, Xiaowan, Gongboxia, Pubugou, Suofengying, Sanbanxi and Shuibuya hydropower stations as well as Tongbai, Yixing, Tai’an and Zhanghewan pumped storage hydropower stations. As a result, 20,000 MW would be expected to put into operation in the period. In addition, hydropower stations like Goupitan, Nuozhadu, Jinping Cascade I and Jishixia (or Laxiwa) are striven to begin construction in the late 10^th Five-year Plan period. 

Focus Two:

Large amounts of oil-fired units need to be substituted for coal-fired units. The scope and amount of technical retrofit is broad and huge. 

There are two main aspects: (1) 20000 MW medium- and low-pressure units with high coal consumption and serious pollution will be replaced with large-sized units. (2) Oil-fired units will be substituted by large size coal-fired ones. In 1999, there were oil-fired units totaling 18,300 MW, with electricity generation of 46.8 TWh and oil consumption of 13.6 Mt. 

There weren’t many small units shut down in the past two years. This implies that retrofitting of small units needs to be speeded up in the 10^th Five-year Plan period. For example, during the 10^th Five-year Plan period, small thermal units of 10,000~15,000 MW will be retrofitted, 5000 MW oil-fired units will be substituted by coal-fired ones, besides, another 15,000~20,000 MW coal-fired units need to be newly added. In order to reduce the import of oil, it is better to use natural gas in the areas where possess natural gas. 

Moreover, some enterprises have their own industrial diesel units, since oil is expensive, and power supply from grids is cheap, it is necessary to enhance the power generation and supply capabilities of grids for meeting enterprises’ power demand so as to reduce the oil consumption of diesel units. 

Focus Three:

Large size backbone hydropower stations with better regulation performance must be exploited with priority. 

China has exploitable hydropower capacity of 378 GW with electricity generation of 1920 TWh. Among them, 72.6% is located in the west part of China. Most of hydropower stations in the eastern and central regions with better conditions have been well developed, except Shuibuya on Qingjiang River. In the future, focal points of hydropower development should turn to the west part of China. Since the power consumption in the western region is small, and with the great difference of output between high water period and low water period, generally, the firm output in low water period is only about 30% of the installed capacity. It is difficult to make full use of the power generated during high water period. There is no doubt that it is a restriction on the development of hydropower. Therefore, it is suggested that, (1) to give precedence to the exploitation and utilization of backbone hydropower stations with larger reservoir capacity, better regulation performance and greater amount of electricity generation in low water period, such as Longtan, Xiaowan, Pubugou, Jinping Cascade I, Sanbanxi and Hongjiadu, etc., so as to raise the generating capability in low water period. (2) to do well the plan and implement the strategy of Sending Power from West to East, and send power to the eastern coastal areas where power consumption increases quickly. 

Focus Four:

The proportion of gas-fired power generation will be increased. The localization of large-scale gas turbine will put on schedule. 

Along with several gas transportation pipe lines (including lines from Tarim to Shanghai, Qinghai to Xining and Lanzhou, Sichuan to Hubei and Hunan, etc.) for “sending gas from west to east” to be built and put into operation, natural gas fields exploited successfully on the East China Sea and the South China Sea, and liquified natural gas imported from abroad in Guangdong, some portion of natural gas will be used for power generation. 

According to statistics and predictions by certain departments, the consumption of gas by power generation is as follows: the consumption in 2000 was 3.3 billion m³, representing 12.5% of the total. In 2015, it will be 23.5 billion m³, representing 29.7%. In 2020, it will be 63.5 billion m³, representing 40.7%. 

From the above, it is concluded that there will be a rapid growth in gas-fired electricity generation. Some steam­gas combined cycle power plants and cogeneration power plants will be built in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Beijing and Lanzhou. Except the areas where gas price is low, the cost of generation by natural gas will be slightly higher than that of coal-fired plants with FGD. But it is good for improving the environment conditions and peak regulation capability of power network, as well as raising the reliability of power supply. Affected by the limitation of energy supply and the raising of gas price which will come up probably in the future, the proportion of gas-fired power generation in power mix won’t be high. 

Lack of experiences with large gas turbine production in China, such equipment needs to be imported at first, and it is better to use similar types of units. The import of equipment and introduction of manufacturing technique shall be carried out simultaneously. While negotiating and exchanging with foreign sides, more efforts should be arranged on self-developing research so as to realize the localization of gas turbine fabrication as soon as possible. 

Focus Five:

Attach importance to environmental protection of coal-fired power plant, and realize the sustainable development strategy. 

In 2000, the nationwide total capacity of coal-fired power plants reached 219.2 GW, accounting for 68.7% of the total installed capacity, their electricity generation was 1060 TWh, making up 77.5% of the total. It is predicted that 60~65% of the newly-added capacity in the future will still be coal-fired thermal power. In the 10^th Five-year Plan period, coal consumption by power generation will increase by 150 Mt. It is necessary to keep balance between coal supply and consumption. Power plant construction and layout shall conform to market economy law and pit-head, roadside and port power plants shall be properly planned to build. In order to implement the strategy of Sending Power from West to East, a batch of large scale pit-head power plants will be built in Shanxi, West Inner Monogolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Guizhou and Yunnan to send power to load centers like Jing-Jin-Tang, Shandong, East China and Guangdong etc. In order to protect our environment and realize sustainable development strategy, we must devote more efforts to research and solve environmental protection problems in coal-fired power plants, and develop clean coal power generation technology. 

300~600 MW subcritical and supercritical units with high efficiency and energy saving performances should be adopted to reduce fuel consumption and pollutant emission. Most of the newly built power plants will be equipped with FGD or CFBC boiler to meet the emission standards. Old power plants that haven’t come up to the environment standards must be retrofitted or shut down. Cycling operation capability and thermal efficiency of thermal power plant must be raised.

Focus Six:

Domestically made 1000 MW class PWR nuclear units will enter trial-producing stage. 

Three nuclear power plants, Ling’ao, Qinshan and Lianyungan, which are under construction now, will be put into operation in the 10^th Five-year Plan period, and there will be no other nuclear power projects to be planned then. The amount of energy resources per capita is not much in China. From the point of view of long term energy balance, it is necessary to develop nuclear power. Only 1000 MW class nuclear power plant can achieve economic scale, and the tariff of electricity will be competitive. China now has grasped the manufacturing technology of PWR, trial-production is needed to clearly carry out in the 10^th Five-year Plan period, and new project construction should be arranged so as to keep the sustainable development of nuclear power industry in China. 

Focus Seven:

Vigorously expand power networks, speed up interconnection between provinces

Power networks and inter-provincial interconnection will be greatly developed in China during the 10^th Five-year Plan period. After the Three Gorges Hydropower Station being put into operation, the middle part network stretching eastward to Shanghai and westward to Chongqing and Sichuan will be initially established, and HVDC transmission project from the Three Gorges to Guangdong will also be built for transmitting 3000 MW power to Guangdong. The surplus electricity of Ertan Hydropower Station and other hydropower stations in Sichuan during high-flow period could be sent eastward to the East China Power Network through the surplus transmitting capabilities of the Three Gorges power grid. The Southern Interconnected Power Network will increase its sending capacity to 9,000 MW through the constructions of Tianshengqiao-Guangdong HVDC transmission and substation project, the third circuit from Tianshengqiao to Guangdong, the 500 kV double-circuit transmission and substation project from Anshun to Liuzhou to Guangdong, as well as HVDC transmission project from Guizhou to Guangdong. Meanwhile, the construction of the 500 kV transmission and substation project from Xinxiang, Henan to Handan, Hebei, which will be speeded up, will realize the interconnection of the Central China Power Network with the North China Power Network. The North China Power Network and the Northeast China Power Network will be interconnected through the construction of the 500 kV project (in operation) from Jiangjiaying, Hebei to Suizhong, Liaoning, and Fujian Power Grid will be connected into the East China Power Network through the construction of the 500 kV project from Fuzhou to Jinhua, Zhejiang. 500 kV and 330 kV systems in each power networks will be continuously stretched and enhanced, forming initially three large interconnecting power networks involving the southern part, the central part and the most area of the northern part. With advantages of less capital cost, shorter construction period and better benefit, AC synchronized interconnection which is widely used in the eastern power network of North America and the networks in West Europe should be adopted in China. As a contrast, DC interconnection will restrict the benefit of interconnection. Simultaneously, measures for raising the transmitting capabilities of 500 kV line should be actively investigated and applied so as to create the conditions for fully utilizing hydropower and reasonably allocating thermal power, or, to prompt the optimized allocation of resources. In addition, the 750 kV transmission line from Gongboxia to Lanzhou, which will be first operated at a dropped voltage of 330 kV, will be constructed. The feasibility and necessity of expanding the applied scope of 750 kV will also be studied. 

Focus Eight:

Promoting actively equipment localization 

The technological level in electric power industry will improve significantly during the 10^th Five-year Plan period. Therefore, equipment localization will be promoted actively in the period. Localization will be advanced by way of combining imported technologies and domestic research and development. The problems existing in the localization of some equipment will be resolved in the period. These include super critical pressure large size thermal generating unit, million kW class nuclear power generating unit, large size hydropower unit, large size pumped-storage unit, large size gas turbine, large size circulating-fluidized-bed boiler, wind power generating unit, desulfurization and denitrogen equipment in thermal power plant, environmental protection equipment, DC transmission facilities, 750 kV ultra-high voltage transmission and substation equipment, etc. Localization of stabilizing equipment, advanced distribution equipment, power plant automation equipment, as well as dispatching and communication automation equipment of power networks will be improved further. 

Focus Nine:

Considering generation, transmission and distribution simultaneously in power planning 

Power industry features that electricity generation, transmission, distribution and consumption are finished simultaneously, therefore, generation, transmission and distribution must be planned at the same time. Power planning bases on power consumption increase, which must be paid great attention. For long ages, an important experience but also a common practice in power planning has been to optimize the allocation of power sources and power networks based on survey on power consumption and increase prediction on power capacity and generation. Whichever aspect should not be unilaterally and separately given prominence to. Power planning method after power plant is separated from network in administration is worth to be studied seriously.  

Focus Ten:

Realizing the program of Sending Power from West to East with unitive knowledge and teamwork.

In view of that Sending Power from West to East is one of the most important constituents in Western Region Development, and so is in its advantages conversion from resource into economy, accelerating hydropower development and utilization, as well as realizing the strategy of sustainable development. It should benefit both eastern and western regions based on the market rules. Electricity sending and receiving parties should unify their knowledge from the altitude of getting rich together for both eastern and western regions, enter into the problems and difficulties of the opposite party, frame the plan practically and realistically and solve the problems occurring during implementation. They should also sign duly long-term contracts of electricity sales and tariff so as to decrease risks for the both parties. The program of Sending Power from West to East would be realized successfully based on these important considerations.